This chart was the latest one I showed in PTC with Chris Lori’s group. It was telling me something may be in the bushes here. I am putting this here for the record. PTC members will recognize the pattern I was pointing out here for the Globex SP. View high resolution

This chart was the latest one I showed in PTC with Chris Lori’s group. It was telling me something may be in the bushes here. I am putting this here for the record. PTC members will recognize the pattern I was pointing out here for the Globex SP.

  • As we had pointed out a while ago down in this blog as well as in PTC video commentaries, there was a good chance here for pullbacks in equities. We now see this coming to pass.

Wishing all of you a great weekend. Love this image. View high resolution

Wishing all of you a great weekend. Love this image.

It looks to me like the commercials may limit the down move hear soon. We are at major support. The large Speculators in the past have often been limited at this lower level of their positioning.

I think we could go into some major re-balancing as the US Dollar as well is meeting the highs with some resistance.

The debasing of currencies as well has been met with some remarks from G7 etc <> There is some criticism which might impact the markets.

I think we have to watch this COT constellation carefully now <> In the upper chart we can discern a sort of COT/ Price cycle which could be now topping out.

&#8220;The U.S. had a budget surplus of $113 billion in April, the largest monthly surplus in 5 years &#8221; on.mktw.net/13KHKMb This just came across twitter. I posted the chart above for what it means when we have a surplus. Not a good sign for the economy.

“The U.S. had a budget surplus of $113 billion in April, the largest monthly surplus in 5 years ” on.mktw.net/13KHKMb

This just came across twitter. I posted the chart above for what it means when we have a surplus. Not a good sign for the economy.

I am asking myself what the US Dollar might do next. I interpret COT still as bearish for the US$. The chart above shows a sort of mirror lately for US Dollar vs. Canadian Dollar.  the Canadian Dollar is heading into resistance while the US Dollar is also at a range top. View high resolution

I am asking myself what the US Dollar might do next. I interpret COT still as bearish for the US$. The chart above shows a sort of mirror lately for US Dollar vs. Canadian Dollar.  the Canadian Dollar is heading into resistance while the US Dollar is also at a range top.

Looking at this familiar chart of Dollar Index relationships, what is sticking out for me besides the Japanese Yen is the Canadian Dollar relative strength. I also notice the increasing gap between Dollar Index and Euro&#8230;I guess the Euro has relative strength(?) as compared to the Dollar. In the past we had the Euro nearly overlaying the Dollar Index. View high resolution

Looking at this familiar chart of Dollar Index relationships, what is sticking out for me besides the Japanese Yen is the Canadian Dollar relative strength.

I also notice the increasing gap between Dollar Index and Euro…I guess the Euro has relative strength(?) as compared to the Dollar. In the past we had the Euro nearly overlaying the Dollar Index.

I just discovered that we can actually plot a second COT window here and choose to have it be COT Net/ or custom or even the Move Index….just great.

 F I B      L E V E L S   F O R  &lt; &gt;    M   T   4   &lt;&gt; If you are using MT4 these Fib Levels will help you trade when you trade the way we do. I put this together many years ago, and I had it stored on Twitpic &lt;. Sometimes the best way not to loose something. View high resolution

 F I B      L E V E L S   F O R  < >    M   T   4   <>

  • If you are using MT4 these Fib Levels will help you trade when you trade the way we do. I put this together many years ago, and I had it stored on Twitpic <. Sometimes the best way not to loose something.

This Friday Morning here in California. And I am waking to further breakdown for this pair. I did a brief trade at the bounce at the level expected. I am documenting this because I had put my reputation on the line with COT analysis for this pair.

Nice to look at the weekly chart as well below the 8 hr. What a story!

INTERVENTION in NZD. This is interesting to see in light of what we have seen on COT and price action lately. I thought to document here for the record.

We can see here in this chart how the COT ranges have increased since around 2006/7 &lt;&gt;  Steven Briese has been talking about this difficulty for COT analysis. He has revamped his ways since then. He was saying that around the beginning of this change the CFTC had broken its own rules and allowed for some large traders to go beyond limit rules. But I think we will now slowly have enough data to see the new limits. View high resolution

We can see here in this chart how the COT ranges have increased since around 2006/7 <>  Steven Briese has been talking about this difficulty for COT analysis. He has revamped his ways since then. He was saying that around the beginning of this change the CFTC had broken its own rules and allowed for some large traders to go beyond limit rules.

But I think we will now slowly have enough data to see the new limits.

I think it is good practice to remind ourselves of what we were talking about recently and then acknowledge the result here in particular for the NZDUSD pair. We certainly had great help from COT and then “head and shoulder” pattern development.

I added a weekly chart here for an overview. Chris was saying that we might get into the lower 80s here.

It is interesting to see the anomaly here for the Australian Dollar really jumping against the Dollar trend to the weak side. It sits very much in juxtaposition to the Canadian Dollar.

We still look like the US DOLLAR is topping out on the weakly chart with a rounded top.

I have inserted the progression of the NZDUSD here for the record. The head/shoulder pattern was a powerful force here as well as Australian interest rates and Chinese data.